The closing value of the AMEX Airline Index for each trading day during a 1-year period is given in the file P13_17.xlsx.
a. How well does the moving average method track this series when the span is 4 days; when the span
is 12 days?
b. Using the more appropriate span, forecast the closing value of this index on the next trading day with
the moving average method.
Then use the StatTools solution provided to answer the following two questions:
? Which is the better predictor – the Four Day Span or the Twelve Day Span?
? Justify your reason for selecting a Four Day or Twelve Day Span.
1. It is important that you use the Excel template provided with this assignment to answer this problem
A 4-Period and a 12-Period Moving Average Forecast has been performed in EXCEL. Further calculations for Forecast Accuracy Measures (Forecast Error, MAD, MAPD) has been shown in Excel for the two different Forecast techniques and the accuracy of the two forecasts has been compared using these calculations.